The quality of 2025 Bordeaux is not in dispute, with many seasoned tasters declaring it among the best they’ve tasted at the en primeur stage. But in a market saturated with stocks of mature vintages, will prices be low enough to ensure a successful en primeur campaign? Desislava Lyapova reports.
Life has become harder to predict than when en primeur first began. In Future Shock (1970), writer and futurist Alvin Toffler proposes that change is happening faster than humans can comfortably process. Decades later, in The Black Swan (2007), professor and essayist Nassim Taleb argues that modern systems are not only faster but more interconnected and more fragile to sudden shocks. Events that once remained local can now ripple across global markets. Betting on the future is increasingly difficult because a single incident can have a far-reaching impact.
This leaves us with a crucial question on the premise of buying wine futures, which was raised during a conversation with George Wilmoth, private client director at UK-based wine merchant Justerini & Brooks: “Will we look back in ten years’ time and say the wines are really good—I wish I’d bought a bit more?”
A happy surprise
Early en primeur reports from leading critics suggest that the wines are indeed really good—in many cases outstanding. Bordeaux 2025 has been widely deemed a happy surprise. After a hot and dry growing season, the wines generally show exceptional balance, with atypically low to moderate alcohol levels well aligned to current stylistic preferences, precise aromas, brisk acidity, and silky tannins from full phenolic ripeness. Comparatively speaking, it has been difficult to identify a similar vintage. Some critics have said that the best 2025s rank among the finest wines they have ever tasted en primeur. In many instances, this success has been at least partly attributed to technical innovations in the winery: The quality of the wines has risen dramatically. Gary Boom, co-CEO at Bordeaux Index, echoes this sentiment following his annual tastings in the region: “A number of the wines were, in my words rather than those of the châteaux, the best I had ever tasted in more than 30 years of en primeur visits. They feel like a culmination of the huge improvements in winemaking over the past ten to 15 years.”
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At the time of writing (in late April), the first 100-point scores (including the ranges often use for barrel samples) have begun to emerge. Naturally, critics have remarked not only on the quality but also on the inconsistency across appellations. Heterogeneity stems from factors such as climatic challenges and variations, terroir, and vine age, requiring different approaches and decisions in the vineyard and winery. Still, Justine Tesseron of Château Pontet-Canet—the property that kickstarted the en primeur sales campaign—laughingly notes that “years ending in five are always good in Bordeaux, and 2025 is no exception.”
While it is helpful to discuss quality, especially when it breeds much-needed optimism, I will leave this to our own Simon Field MW (see pp.174–91) and other critics. Quality alone does not sell wine; nor does it answer the central question around purchasing decisions posed at the outset—one we will seek to unravel here. From a production standpoint, however, it is worth noting that 2025 is the smallest crop since 1991, with low yields often cited as justification for higher prices.
Indeed, if high quality and scarcity determined pricing in Bordeaux, we would expect significant increases in 2025, especially after the problematic 2024 vintage. But as Pierre-Olivier Clouet of Château Cheval Blanc puts it, pricing “depends on many things [such as] the global economic context and the price of vintages already available on the market.” En primeur, in principle, should represent the lowest price at which a wine is ever available, reflecting future benefits to the buyer—improving quality, dwindling supply, and rising value.
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Yet with prices for back vintages tumbling in the secondary market, due to a combination of internal and external factors, does this equation still work? Are the supposed benefits now nothing more than myths from the past?
Pricing: Myths and reality
Myths need to become a reality, according to Liv-ex data and trade conversations I’ve had this year, as over the past five. Tom Burchfield, head of market intelligence at Liv-ex, writes, “With low yields and the prospects of good critical reception, we hear of producers considering raising prices on last year, a vintage that didn’t sell. This is problematic and will stop the 2025s being a ‘no-brainer’ buy, which is what collectors need at this point.” As Wilmoth observes, “There is a very good vintage, and there is a very good value-for-money vintage—and the two are not always correlated.”
So, what would turn this vintage into a buy? According to Burchfield, there must be “no comparable back vintages already in the market for end collectors to choose instead. That, rather than any largely meaningless comparison to last year’s release price, is what matters.” Matthew O’Connell, CEO of LiveTrade at Bordeaux Index, expands on this: “The 2024 vintage last year represented an unsuccessful campaign, with pricing too marginal to gather momentum. There are reasons to be positive on the upcoming campaign for the 2025s, given that they are reputed to have turned out very well. As always, though, pricing will be very important, because there is good stock of a number of recent high-quality vintages available in the market.”
Before the pricing dilemma reaches the end consumer, it moves through an increasingly strained supply chain. Sophia Gilmour, market analyst at Liv-ex, tells me, “Where, in the past, even poorly priced allocations may have been taken by négociants and merchants in order to maintain relationships, this is no longer financially viable. A quick look at the balance sheets of the key players reliant on en primeur reveals they’re in deep trouble—operating margins deep in the red and inventories bursting at the seams. They simply cannot afford to take on stock that won’t be sold. This means that châteaux will need either to meet the market where it is or to ensure they have plenty of warehouse space at their disposal.”
Meeting the market
So, where exactly is the market now? Bordeaux’s share has continued to decline, more than halving over the past decade. Year to date, it comfortably sits at 35%.
The 2025 vintage arrives at a moment of consolidation for the region. Bordeaux remains dominant but has ceded significant ground to Burgundy (23%), Italy (15%), Champagne (11%), and other regions (fig. 1).
Since the most recent market peak in 2022, Bordeaux prices have fallen 27% on average. Over the past year alone—since the start of the 2024 en primeur campaign—they are down 4% (though they have stabilized since the end of 2025).
Encouragingly, the first growths have slowed their rate of decline compared to the broader Bordeaux market. While they fell more sharply from the 2022 peak, they have declined by just 2% over the past year. Overall, Bordeaux’s first growths have generally performed better than top wines from Burgundy and California, but they lag behind Italy and Champagne.
In terms of price performance, mature Bordeaux has proven far more resilient than younger vintages; figure 2 highlights this divergence. For comparative purposes, the mature vintages referenced are 1986, 1989, 1990, and 2000, while the pool of physically available younger vintages comprises 2018, 2019, and 2020.
Over the past five years, prices for mature Bordeaux have fallen 5% versus a 27% decrease for young vintages. Since January 2025, mature Bordeaux prices have begun to recover, rising 4.3%. “There is definitely demand for mature vintages,” notes Wilmoth.
Stephen Browett of Farr Vintners also sees the Bordeaux market as a tale of two halves. “The market for older vintages—let’s say 2016 and before—is rather static but okay. Fabulous vintages like 2016, 2010, 2009, and 2005 are being bought by collectors and drinkers. And good vintages like 2015 (especially Margaux and Pessac-Léognan), 2014 (especially the northern Médoc), and 2012 (especially the Right Bank) are being enjoyed for current drinking by smart buyers,” Browett observes.
Meanwhile, “the problem in the market is with younger vintages. The 2019s are gorgeous and were mainly released at sensible prices. But the classically structured 2020s have struggled to justify their release prices, and 2021 has been an absolute car crash. Average-quality wines released at stupid prices have made customers who bought them regret their purchases,” Browett explains.
According to Burchfield, “Release prices that result in subdued demand have consistently resulted in recent vintages tumbling in value post-release.”
Indeed, of the past 17 vintage campaigns, only five have delivered positive returns since ex-London release (fig. 3). No vintage since 2015 has yet shown positive performance, meaning that, in many cases, wines are now available at prices significantly below their en primeur release. Young vintages, regardless of quality, have tended to decline in value.
Does vintage quality matter?
If the market today is increasingly defined by a divide between mature and young Bordeaux, rather than better and worse years, it raises an obvious question: How much does vintage quality actually matter?
Top vintages dazzle with scores, prestige, and critical acclaim—and tend to attract more attention on release. But when it comes to returns and value for money, the picture is less straightforward. Many investment advisers argue that so-called off vintages often have greater room for price appreciation, making them a more compelling proposition for medium-term investment.
Looking at performance since release, this begins to bear out (fig. 4). Among the first growths—the most liquid segment of the secondary market—only a few off vintages are currently trading above their release prices. Despite periods of volatility, the average market prices for 2008 and 2013 now sit above their original offer levels. By contrast, a high-quality vintage such as 2009, released at the peak of the market, is still trading at a significant discount to its release price. In fact, it has been cheaper than it currently is only once—around 2015—and now represents an attractive entry point for those looking for top-tier Bordeaux.
All of this reinforces a broader point: Performance depends on quality as much as on timing, release pricing, and market context. Crucially, many of these vintages are still relatively young in investment terms, meaning the window for returns may not be closing yet.
So, how can the current market absorb a high-quality young vintage? Beyond pricing, part of the answer may lie in pacing. As Wilmoth argues, “It would be a catastrophically bad decision if the campaign went on for longer than a month. This campaign needs to happen at a relatively brisk pace, with good communication from the châteaux on when they intend to release and with a genuinely compelling price that has the end consumer in mind.”
There is, however, some room for flexibility. Wilmoth admits, “We could potentially cope with price increases” where the wines are “really very good,” but he adds a note of caution: “I don’t think there is agreement in the trade about what constitutes ‘very good.’”
The importance of this campaign extends far beyond Bordeaux itself. Many in the trade see it as a potential reset moment. As Burchfield puts it, “If measured release pricing does give the 2025s a good chance of retaining value over time, Bordeaux will have increased the likelihood of the wider market continuing its path to recovery.”
At the time of writing—at the beginning of the campaign—the trade remains cautiously optimistic. Matthew O’Connell comments, “We would love to see a successful campaign, because we continue to believe that Bordeaux en primeur can play an important role in a broader recovery of buyer focus on the region.” Similarly, Vinum’s Miles Davis notes, “We choose to support en primeur because there are always some wines that ‘work,’ and it’s a good time and place to catch up.”
That said, optimism is inevitably tempered by concern. Thibaut Mathieu, managing director, Asia, of Corney & Barrow, explains, “Part of me remains optimistic, because we love Bordeaux, the wines have never been so good, and the vintage seems promising. But the echoes from the market are not encouraging, and the main reason is price. The success of the campaign will depend of pricing. The buyers want to see them down.”
Trading the past for the future
One of the enduring advantages of buying en primeur is access—allocations, different formats, the chance to secure wines that may later become difficult to find. While the practicalities have been discussed at length, it is worth stepping outside the mechanics for a moment and enter the realm of pleasure.
There is undeniable comfort in the past—in mature vintages, in relying on what is already understood and proven. But the future is already here. Buying new releases offers a fresh perspective on a region that continues to evolve. With Bordeaux’s modern style, many wines are as approachable in youth as they are built for longevity, making the case for engaging earlier. This is especially true in the context of climate change. As Jean-Basile Roland, sales and logistics director of Rauzan-Ségla, puts it, “We are now moving faster than climate change.”
And despite all the noise—the shifting market share, the competition from other regions—the wine world still has much to learn from Bordeaux. It remains a place like no other. Perhaps, then, the question is not just about pricing or returns but also whether we will look back and feel we wanted to be part of this moment, following a vintage since its birth.
We live in turbulent times, and it is easy to become desensitized to the present. From today’s perspective, 2025 may not look like a historic vintage in the traditional sense (like wartime vintages that break records for their story alone). But in time, it may prove memorable nonetheless. And memories, even more than wines, are what we look back on with regret or satisfaction.
